The Himalayan blunder does not imply that nothing is wrong in the Himalaya and that the glaciers are well and will not one day disappear if we do nothing and continue business as usual.
The Himalaya support nearly half of humanity “Him" means snow “alaya" means mountain. The mountains of snow have also been called the third pole, since they are the third largest body of snow on our planet after the Antarctic and Artic.
Over the last year, Navdanya / Research Foundation teams have worked with local communities in Uttarakhand and Ladakh to assess the impact of climate change on their ecosystems and economies and to evolve participatory plans for climate change adaptation. From 6th to 13th of September we undertook a climate yatra from Dehradun in Uttarakhand to Leh in Ladakh.
The signals from the ground are very clear, and very disturbing. There has been a radical reduction in snowfall. Many villages that got snow a few decades back no longer receive snowfall. Where it still falls, it has decreased dramatically. This is leading to a thinning, and often a disappearance of glaciers. The snowline is moving upwards, reducing the snow cover of the Himalaya.
In regions like Ladakh which is a high altitude desert, snow melt from glaciers provides the only source of water. When instead of snow in winter Ladakh receives rains in July, flash floods, unknown in the desert, become a new climate related disaster. In regions like Uttarakhand, the source of the mighty Ganga and Yamuna, while the monsoons provide rain in the peak season, it is the snow melt and the water conserved in forested catchments as perennial springs and streams, which provides water in the lean season. It is in the lean season water is most needed. And it is the lean season flows which the decreasing snow in the Himalaya will further reduce.
Climate change and climate instability affects the Himalayan snows both through lower snow precipitation which reduces the accumulation and through higher temperatures which melt the snow and ice and further deplete the glacier. According to climatologists alpine glaciers, such as those in the Himalaya, are particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. The particular vulnerability of Himalayan glaciers to climate change is due to the fact that they are “summer accumulation types" dependent on summer monsoonal precipitation and cool summer temperatures and consequently, the summer mass balance of these glaciers nearly equals the annual mass balance.
As global warming continues to increase the atmospheric temperature, it will lead to a continuous shift of zero temperature line (snow line) toward higher altitude. Thus glaciers will receive more liquid precipitation and less monsoonal snowprecipitation. A shift in the snowline will result in lesser input to the glacier mass balance during summer periods. Therefore, higher atmospheric temperatures and more liquid precipitation at higher altitude in the Himalayas will lead to rapid retreat of glaciers.
The impact of global warming is already being felt in the Himalayas as the example of the 30.2 km long Gangotri glacier shows. The rate of retreat in the last three decades has been found to be more than three times the rate during the earlier 200 years. The average rate of recession has been computed by comparing the snout position on 1985 toposheet map and the 2001 panchromatic satellite imagery and the result shows that the average recession for this period is about 23 m/yr. The pictorial plot based on historical evidences and recent data on the Gangotri glacier retreat in a research by Jeff Kargel, Geologist of USGS also supports the increased rate of retreat of the Gangotri. The enhanced rate of retreat is attributed to the increased anthropogenic contribution to the climate on account of greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global warming.
Climate change is not a one dimensional linear phenomenon. It is complex, with many factors interacting to create an unstable climate. Changes in patterns of snowfall and rainfall and changes in temperature are changing the very conditions, which have maintained the fragile and young Himalaya as a stable and sustainable ecosystem on which 40% of humanity depends, largely through gift of water.
Even though communities in the Himalaya are experiencing climate instability and with it ecosystem instability, a false debate about Himalayan glaciers has been created leading to complacency and inaction.
Some scientists, without data and without monitoring, created a panic saying by 2035, Himalayan glaciers would disappear because of climate change. In response, glaciologists who have been studying glaciers diligently for decades swung to the other extreme and said that there was nothing to worry about and glaciers are not receding. Therefore there is no climate change and global warming.Â
 
The scientists who are saying glaciers are not melting and retreating are focusing on three indicators -
 1.  That the rate of retreat of each glacier has varied over time
   2. That the rate of retreat varies across glaciers
   3. That the snout of some glaciers has not retreated as significantly as the tributaries
This variation is treated as proof of no climate impact. Since climate change is not a linear and uniform phenomena, there is no reason to expect uniform melting. Since most glaciologists are originally geologists, they think on the geological time scale and not on the human time scale, either of human impact on the climate, or the impact of climate change on human communities. It is true that the earth has had glacial ages and deglaciation in the past, independent of humans. But today's climate instability is human induced and it will determine whether the human species survives or goes extinct.
Most glaciers of the Himalaya are retreating. Some in the Kara Korams are not. And a retreat of one metre as in the case of Siachin and 23 metres as in the case of Gaumukh is still a retreat.
Dr. Ganjoo's paper in Current Science, Vol. 97, no. 3, 10th August 2009 has stirred a major controversy. Dr. Ganjoo is one of our top glaciologists. For him a glacier is a living system. He knows more than anyone else that expecting uniformity in the response of glaciers to climate change goes against glaciers as living systems. Further, since a glacier is a living system, its health depends on all its parts being healthy as in a body - its metabolism, its digestion, its blood circulation. We do not look only at the trunk of a body to determine health. If hands and feet are affected by gangrene, if the metabolism is not functioning, a body is not healthy. The glaciers of the Himalaya are loosing their snows, they are thinning, and they are fragmenting. And we cannot be complacent, telling ourselves everything is fine, and the Himalaya are insulated from climate change.
Dr. Ganjoo is in part responding to the hype and partly looking at glaciers on geological time scale, not the human time scale. He admits that the tributaries of Siachin glacier have retreated. He also admits that the main glacier has retreated by 8 - 10 metres since 1995. He admits that glacier has thinned. The west part of the glaciers has retreated faster due to action of melt water released from the retreated tributary glacier.
Panic and hype about global warming and climate change is not an appropriate scientific response. Nor is denial of its impact. Climate change demands a response beyond reductionist science. It needs a systemic and holistic scientific approach. It needs knowledge of changing precipitation and temperatures. It needs knowledge of the interaction between snow and glaciers and melt water that feeds rivers. Above all, climate change needs bridging the divide between fragmented disciplines, and bridging the divide between people's science and scientist's science.
The date in the IPCC report is wrong and the IPCC has apologized for the error. However, the assumptions in the Ministry of Environment Report that says that climate instability does not pose a threat to the Himalayan snows and glaciers is also wrong.
Navdanya / Research Foundation for Science, Technology and Ecology have carried out an in depth participatory study with local communities in the Himalaya on the impact of climate change. These have been supplemented by studies by experts. These studies were presented at the National Conference on Climate Change in the Himalaya organised by Navdanya / Research Foundation for Science, Technology and Ecology / India International Centre at The Auditorium of India International Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi on November 17, 2009 and in Copenhagen.
The Research Foundation was established in 1982 on the basis of the recognition that people facing the impact of ecological destruction are the best “experts" in knowing how their ecosystems work, how they are being destabilized and how their lives and livelihoods are being impacted.Â
But like Nero fiddled while Rome burnt, the Environment and Forest Ministry, in charge of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, is fiddling with figures, while the Himalaya lose their springs and streams, their snows and glaciers.
The Ministry of Environment recently released a report “Himalayan Glaciers: A State of the Art Review of Glacial Studies, Glacial Retreat and Climate Change" by V.K. Raina. The report reduces the complex phenomena of climate change to merely an increase of temperature, and uses this reductionism to create a false complacency about the Himalayan ecosystem. All data presented by experts at the National Conference on Climate Change in the Himalaya organised by Navdanya / Research Foundation for Science, Technology and Ecology on 17th November, 2009 and also in the Ministry of Environment report acknowledges increase in deviation of seasonal snowfall, and retreat of glaciers. Yet repeatedly, the conclusion is drawn that there is no retreat. The inconsistency between data and conclusions is glaring.
For example, On Drung Drung glacier, the report states -
“During 2006-2008, snout of glacier caved in by 2.85m, along the central part. Along the west side, a retreat of 3m was noted. Over all the terminus of Drung Drung glacier, for the past three years has not revealed any significant retreat"
“The snout of the Siachen glacier of 2008 has retreated by 8 - 10 metres since 1995. Geomorphical evidences are indicative of poor response of the Siachen glacier to global warming".
“For Gangotri, magnitude of displacement was calculated to be around 9.33cm per day, and the glacier calculated to be retreating at the rate of 4 cm per day or 14.6 m per year. The Gangotri glacier has been practically at a standstill."
Two other unscientific arguments are used to say there is no impact of climate change on Himalayan glaciers and Himalayan Rivers.
The first is to state that the melting of Arctic glaciers is because they are at sea level, whereas the Himalayan glaciers are on average around 4000 m. “If we go by the topographic theory that maintains that because the temperature decreases with the altitude, mountain uplift causes glaciations, Himalayas should always retain glaciers in one form or the other." On this argument the snows of Mt. Kilimanjaro would never have disappeared and there should never have been snow in the Arctic.
The final unscientific argument is that because the monsoon accounts for most of the flow of the Ganges, there is no need to worry. “Our data indicate the Ganges results primarily from monsoon rainfall, and until the monsson fails completely, there will be a Ganges river, very similar to present river". While the monsoons account for most the river flow in the monsoons, the glacial melt accounts for flow in the lean season when it is most needed. With reducing glacial melt, the Ganges will become a seasonal river, not the perennial river that it is. And in any case, climate instability has also destabilized the monsoon as witnessed in the 2009 drought.
Both the sections of the IPCC reports on the Himalayan Glaciers and the counter reports reveal the fallibility of the best of scientists.
This is why vital issues like the state of the Himalaya cannot be left to experts alone. On issues that effect people's lives, people must be involved. The Himalayan snows affect the life and death options of half of humanity and Himalayan communities are the best experts on what is happening to the Himalaya. That is why we have carried out participatory research on climate change in the Himalaya, and produced a report entitled “Climate Change at the Third Pole : The Impact of Climate Instability on Himalayan Ecosystems and Himalayan Communities" as well as a film “The Third Pole"
For further details log on to: http://www.navdanya.org
For Edward Goldsmith's interview with Sanctuary Asia log on to: http://www.sanctuaryasia.com/index.php?view=article&catid=136%3Ainterviews&id=1594%3Ameet-edward-goldsmith&option=com_content&Itemid=271
