As a demonstration of the new technique, the scientists quantified how hurricane storm surges would affect New York City. They found that coupled with climate change, there would be a dramatic increase in the annual risk of so-called “100-year events" that have a 1 percent risk of occurring in any given year. As the climate changes, such powerful storms would have a 5 to 33 percent chance of happening in a given year in Manhattan, the scientists reported in an analysis published online today in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric sciences at MIT and an author of the paper, said that the method hasn't been used to analyze Boston, but that because of Boston Harbor's orientation and the characteristics of hurricanes that strike here, the city wasn't particularly susceptible to hurricane storm surges. Narragansett Bay, on the other hand, is at greater risk.
“The technique could be applied anywhere," Emanuel said. While it has become clear that climate change will have an impact on sea-level rise and hurricane intensity, Emanuel said that scientists have lacked tools to predict and quantify the combination of these effects.
The scientists used computer models, including four climate models and a hurricane model. They compared two time frames: storm activity and surges under present climate conditions from 1981 to 2000, and surges under the anticipated climate in 2081 to 2100. Read the full report here.
Source: by Carolyn Y. Johnson, Globe Staff, Boston.com, Metro Desk.
