Lessons from Aila - cyclones in the Sundarbans, whirlwinds in the corridors of power

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First published in Sanctuary Asia, Vol. 29 No. 10, October 2009
 
By May 25, 2009, wind speeds had reached 120 kmph. and water levels had risen from two to seven metres. All sources of drinking water had been salinised. The tidal surge had killed 300 people and caused over 8,000 to go missing. According to the Associated Press, some 2.3 million people were affected by the cyclone and damages were conservatively estimated to be upwards of up to U.S.$ 40 million.
 
Reliving the tragedy
 
The stink of decomposition was strong in the air, and fears of a diarrhoea outbreak soon came true. Not surprisingly, the misery was focused almost precisely where human habitation had destroyed large swatches of mangroves. Electricity lines, generators and boats were tossed about like match sticks. Mud embankments, a futile attempt at keeping the tide at bay, quickly crumbled as sea water reclaimed once fertile lands. For the foreseeable future no food will be grown here by villagers. The Duttar and Haldibari forest camps were also destroyed.   
 
Within the Sundarbans Tiger Reserve, the first line of mangroves at places like Panchamukhani Compartment Six were destroyed, but the second line onwards remained intact, testimony to the tenacity of these ramparts of the sea. Forest officials swung into action to reach fresh water to distraught villagers from sources within the reserve. Department offices doubled up as refugee shelters.  
 
The impact of the cyclone on wildlife has not yet been completely assessed. Reports of stray tigers and crocodile deaths emerged, but no carcasses were found and it is presumed the loss was minimal. Officials suggest cautiously, however, that though instinct may have helped the animals survive the initial onslaught of the wind and water, some wild creatures must have died of exhaustion and shock. Though the tigers probably fared well, significant numbers of deer and wild pigs must have been swept away and this could pose a problem in the coming months as it might cause the big cats to enter village areas in search of food. The frequency of tigers straying into villages has already increased. Some experts suggest that this is possibly because several areas of the tiger reserve adjacent to villages are still under tidal water due to broken embankments and it is impossible for the animals to distinguish forest lines with that of human lands.
 
Helping hands
 
NGOs working selflessly for wildlife in the Sundarbans for decades more than demonstrated their worth because almost without exception they sprang to the aid of villagers in far flung, isolated and dangerous areas. Hemendra Kothari, Chairman, Wildlife Conservation Trust (WCT), a Mumbai-based NGO, instantly made resources available to many NGOs who had already begun purchasing relief materials from their own funds, without waiting for outside help. Apart from tarpaulins, medicines and dry foods, Sanctuary's Bengal Tiger Bachaao Campaign (being supported by Bengal Tiger Line), worked closely with Dr. Subrat Mukherjee, Field Director, Sundarbans Tiger Reserve, using WCT funds.  
 
With water-borne diseases like cholera, diarrhoea and others like malaria and dengue affecting the area, WCT and Bengal Tiger Bachaao Campaign are also distributing medicines and mosquito nets through the Forest Department.  
 
A.K.Raha, Principal Chief Conservator of Forests, West Bengal, wrote to Sanctuary to say: “The devastation is all the more shattering because most of the agricultural lands have been temporarily destroyed by salinity. Most surface water sources too have become saline and thousands of katccha houses have either been fully damaged or are about to fall. Drinking water is a real serious concern. Opposite these shattered villages, however, the mangrove forest and its wild animals have hardly been affected." 
 
The Forest Department seldom gets credit for the work they do, but the people of the Sundarbans are unlikely to forget the manner in which the forest staff took up the responsibility of relief operations to reach hopelessly-stranded people. Dr. Mukherjee took the lead by setting up an information exchange that not only kept NGOs informed of what he and his staff were doing, but also what each NGO was doing, and in which specific area. This eliminated duplication and helped ensure that resources were evenly distributed. But, as he was at pains to explain, the real challenge lies ahead. Helping people to survive in the harsh post-Aila scenario is not going to be easy. What is more, the worry now is that people with no resources, no means of livelihoods, are very likely to invade the core area of the tiger reserve and thus degrade the very forests that are their strongest safety net against future natural disasters.
 
Playing with fire
 
A month after Cyclone Aila hit the Sundarbans, news of other disasters and national problems inevitably pushed Aila and the Sundarbans away from the front page and off prime time television. But within the Sundarbans, the people continue to be shaken. They know something is very wrong, but do not know quite what it is. We, however, do know. One of the copy book characteristics of climate change is the increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events like Aila.  
 
India may not have been responsible for climate change, but it is going to be one of its first and hardest hit victims. Statistics place India as the fourth largest emitter of carbon dioxide, after the United States, China and Russia. Writes Arun Shourie: “While the amounts of emissions and pollutants that India releases per capita are lower than those of the developed countries, the totals of these are large, and, were it to persist in acquiring consumption levels and adopting production processes of the developed world, they will become fatally large because of the size of its population As Lester Brown has pointed out, the ecological footprint of the developed world is 32 times that of other countries. Were China and India to make the same draft on resources, it would be as if the population of the world had tripled; were all countries to do so, it will be as if the population of the world had increased to 72 billion." 
 
Fortunately India's official position on climate change is undergoing correction. From a “we cannot be expected to adhere to any targets" our country has moved to be more in line with the global realisation that “Global mean temperatures must be retained below 20C compared to pre-industrial levels." Shyam Saran, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Special Envoy on Climate Change writes: “India believes that investment in addressing climate change, specially in renewable energy, could create new industries, new jobs and spur technological innovation. Action on climate change must become part of the solution to the financial and economic crisis, not its casualty."
 
Time to act
 
If the rate of warming remains unchecked, it is estimated that by 2020, 25 per cent of the habitable area of the Sundarbans will be lost. Already, though global sea level rise is estimated to be just two millimetres a year, levels in the Sundarbans delta are rising 3.14 by mm. a year. A one metre rise in sea level could inundate an estimated 17 per cent of Bangladesh and take the entire Sundarbans with it. If this happens, the loss will be impossible to express in monetary terms and will create climate refugees that number millions. This would overwhelm not just West Bengal but the whole country.  
 
Protecting the Sundarbans is no longer an option. It is a survival imperative because this, the world's largest mangrove forest, actually serves as a water treatment plant for the country. It is a climate regulator and stabiliser and it demands that planners flow with its tide, rather than try to control its ebb and flow. Aila was merely a wake up call. The real danger is yet to strike. Hopefully, the country and the people of the Sundarbans will be forewarned.
 
By Swati Hingorani and Lakshmy Raman
 
First published in Sanctuary Asia, Vol. XXIX. No. 4. August 2009 
 
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